But here’s the thing. Do you care to guess how much J&J lost thanks to that currency movement? Answer: a cool hundred million dollars. Johnson is a pretty large company, but even so. To lose a hundred million bucks? In Venezuela? That sounds a little disturbing, no? A bit like the start of one of those killer-virus horror flick, where the pretty teenager who comes down with a benign little illness ends up dying horribly as some unknown disease takes hold.

Central Planners Bernanke, Draghi & Merkel Hard at Work

Well, that is now the reality of the world economy. The loose money policies at the world’s leading central banks are beginning to broadcast that virus right across the globe. The vector of transmission isn’t just low interest rates. It’s money printing too. It’s the purchase of government bonds so that the long end of the yield curve is as manipulated as the low end.

Indeed, you simply can’t set a bound on how widespread and intensive the destruction of value has been, not merely in the U.S., but across the globe. Take, for example, the Fed’s willingness to purchase toxic real estate assets — using your money to acquire securities which are now shunned by the market. Or take the Bank of England’s efforts to shove easy money at banks making corporate loans. What happened to good old-fashioned faith in markets? The belief that transactions of commercial merit will be struck between a willing buyer and a willing seller … and that any other sort of transaction should be strongly discouraged?

The simple fact is that the world’s major central banks are indulging in a massive proprietary trading scheme placing your money at risk in support of poor quality assets. When I wrote Planet Ponzi, I argued that Wall Street and government between them had created the world’s biggest ever Ponzi scheme. Well, the central banks want to play at that table too — and right now they’re the ones with unlimited money and zero accountability.

In recent months, the Japanese yen has plummeted 30 percent against the euro and some 20 percentagainst the U.S. dollar. Those figures are astounding enough in themselves, but get this: The euro currency probably won’t even exist in a few years’ time. The outcome of the Italian election gave a more than quarter of the vote to a comedian, Beppe Grillo. (He is literally a comedian; I’m not just using the term as a synonym for “Italian politician.”) Grillo wants to exit the euro and default on Italian debt. Other parties shared nearly all the remainder of the vote. The only politician to stand four-square behind Angela Merkel’s austerity ad infinitum plan was Mario Monti, who secured just one tenth of the vote.

Grillo’s plan, as it happens, isn’t dumb. The euro has been killing Italy, and though Italian debts are high, they are, for the most part, funded domestically and the national budget is not far from being in balance. So Grillo’s plan keeps it simple: quit the euro, self-fund the debt, go back to doing what Italian governments have always done. If that sounds nuts, bear in mind that Italy’s economy has been a post-war miracle — growing way faster than the U.S. economy, albeit from a lower base. Italy only really started to fail when it joined the euro: Meaningful growth has been absent ever since. Italy’s competitiveness — never so secure — has been systematically wiped out by its adventure with the euro.

If Italy follows a path that’s anything like the one Grillo has mapped out for it — or if civic unrest grows — or if some European bank found itself obliged to admit to the true value of some whole new pile of nasties on its balance sheet — then the euro is dead; but this is the currency against which the yen is devaluing.

The precise path of these currency wars is impossible to predict, but it’s not hard to predict the final outcome. First, there will be huge losses. Japan has an economy that’s almost twenty times larger than Venezuela’s. If Johnson & Johnson can lose $100 million in Venezuela, just how much more will be lost in the Far East and Europe, not just by that one company but by every other multinational one too?

Spain's civil disorder - A coup d'état in the air? Euro departure?

Secondly, civil unrest. We’ve seen bouts of unrest already surging across the world — from riots in Greece, to the Occupy movement, to the indignados in Spain — but these things are only going to get worse. Suppose, for example, that Italy does successfully quit the euro; what will that say to the Spaniards and Greeks and Portuguese and Irish who are currently suffering its death throes?

And thirdly: inflation. The trouble with currency wars is that they’re too easy to wage. You just have to print money. The mainstream media barely reports the ongoing activity and the Fed is either in denial or lying. It all sounds a little technical and dull. We assume that the people in charge of looking after our money supply are on our side, that they have our interests at heart.

But do they? Again and again, we see that central banks make the error of equating happy financial markets with strong economies — precisely the mistake that was made by central banks ever since the dot-com crash (and, indeed, before.) Here’s the simple truth. Financial markets prefer excessive valuations and excessive liquidity. Sure, they love it if the Fed prints a ton of new money. Obese kids would probably like it if McDonald’s gave away their stuff for free on street corners.

But the interests of Wall Street are not your interests. Global stock markets are making new record highs — on what? What’s so great about the world economy? The truth is that stock markets are up because of Fed-based ‘hopium’: the torrents of cash artificially manipulating prices. Yet whatever goes up must come down and no one at the Fed even pretends to have an exit strategy. The simple fact is that the Fed has created the mother of all asset bubbles, and the popping will be on a scale previously unknown.

Indeed, you only have to look at the personnel in key positions across the globe to understand how deeply Wall Street has penetrated institutions that were meant to be there for us.

Jon Corzine - What happened to MF Global's missing Billions? Who said there is no revolving door between Wall Street and Washington?

Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank is an ex-Goldman guy. So is William Dudley President of the New York Fed — who controls the FOMC. So is Mark Carney, soon to be Governor of the Bank of England, currently the Governor of the Bank of Canada as well as the Head of the Financial Stability Board in Switzerland. When you start to add in key politicians with affiliations to the same institution (Mario Monti, Hank Paulson, Robert Rubin, Gary Gensler, Jon Corzine), you start to realize that our entire political system has become heavily conflicted and corrupted. The interests of Wall Street have come to dominate the interests of ordinary citizens.

All Ponzi schemes must come to an end. They always bring disaster when they do — but that’s no reason to close them down, because the collapse only gets bigger the longer you leave them. We are in the end stages of a huge, global Ponzi scheme right now. The losses are rising, the risks are getting greater. And the worst disasters lie ahead.

My printing presses are operating 24/7!

On the first day of Christmas, my country gave to me

A debt bigger than GDP

Yep, that’s right. US Public debt stands at more than 100% of GDP. The last time debt was this high, we were fighting a World War across two continents and building a peaceful prosperous world, whose basic shape would endure for generations. That was money worth spending. On this occasion, however, we’ve run up the debt, in order to protect Wall Street bankers – yet the sebanks are still crammed full of unsustainable assets. It won’t be long before the Fed further loads its balance sheet with worthless toxic assets … thereby transferring liabilities from the reckless bankers to US citizens. Maybe not quite such a good buy, huh?

On the second day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Debt for the poorest

According to Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, the share of American GDP going to wages and salaries has falled to about 43% since 1970. At the same time, the slice going to companies in after-tax profits has doubled since just 2005. How have the US middle classes even vaguely been able to sustain their living standards? Answer: by taking on unpayable debt that chokes the financial system and throttles economic growth. It’s an appalling situation and it’s not set to change.

On the third day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Bernanke trashing dollars

Impact of money printing and currency debasement

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is not an elected official. Prior to taking his current job, he was a classic ivory tower economist: a guy who couldn’t do any harm because no one was dumb enough to give him any power. Then he took control of the Fed: an organisation whose structure and oversight has barely been altered since 1913 when it was created, under vastly different conditions. Back then, GDP was just $40 billion. By contrast, in 2011, the interest on US debt was $454 billion despite interest rates at 200-year lows. Since taking charge of the Fed, Bernanke has printed trillions of dollars – a plan that trashes the value of the dollar in your pocket, and a plan with no plausible exit strategy. The plain fact is that pumping money into the economy does nothing to boost real growth or real output – it just inflates bubbles in property and stock, as has been shown repeatedly for thirty years and more now. If you’re not convinced, just check the graph.

On the fourth day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Overpriced healthcare

Good quality healthcare is, in my view, a human right and Obamacare, for all its faults, brings that right a little closer to millions of Americans. But the United States, under every administration and every Congress, has completely lost control of health costs. We currently pay about $8,000 per head in health costs. (That figure includes household, corporate and government spending.) Our major competitors spend between $2,900 per head (Japan) and $4,500 (Canada). And they have better healthcare. To find OECD countries with worse performance on ‘years of life lost’, you have to travel south to Mexico or east to Hungary. All other countries in the OECD fare better.

On the fifth day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Quarreling leaders

Iceland is no banana republic

We pay politicians to solve problems, right? We just had an election at which alternative views were put to the people, for their decisions on the way forward. And this country of ours has some fair-sized problems. So what happens? We have the ultimate This-Needs-A-Decision-Now situation in the fiscal cliff, and both sides cleave to their existing rigid positions until (wait for it) they come up with some dumb and unsustainable last minute compromise. That’s not what they’re paid to do. These same politicians think that raising the debt limit will stimulate the economy. Wrong! At a global level, the growth in credit instruments has outpaced growth in the real economy by a factor of around four times. That’s not healthy for the world, and it’s not healthy for the debt-dependent United States. I predict that the US will enter a recession in 2013.

On the sixth day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Corruption on Wall Street

You could have a whole 12 days song just for Wall Street corruption and its toothless regulators, so endemic is the problem. But let’s narrow the microscope, so we’re only looking at SEC enforcement

Zero high profile bankers in jail = 0 regulation

actions since 2009. Firms affected include: Citigroup (multiple times), Commonwealth Advisors, Goldman Sachs, ICP, JP Morgan (multiple times), Mizuho, Stifel Nicolaus, Wachovia, Wells Fargo, American Home Mortgage, Bank Atlantic, Countrywide, Credit Suisse (multiple times), Franklin, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Indymac, New Century, Option One Mortgage, Thornburg, TierOne, Bear Stearns, Charles Schwab , Evergreen, Morgan Keegan, Oppenheimer, Reserve Fund, State Street, TD Ameritrade, Bank of America, Brooke Corp, Brookstreet, Colonial Bank, Taylor Bean & Whitaker, KCAP Financial, and UCBH. The list includes firms where executives from that firm were charged. In total, 133 entities and individuals have been charged. Total penalties and similar charges amount to $2.6 billion. Aside from the SEC, other regulators have been equally active. And has anything fundamental changed? Nope. Nothing at all. Wall Street is still rotten to its core. And why would it change? When these fines represent perhaps 10%, if that, of the ill-gotten gains why on earth would bankers change their business models? They just need to keep paying the toll.

On the seventh day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Despairing workers

This time its worse..

One of the big talking points ahead of the election was whether the jobless rate would come to Obama’s rescue. And sure, the rate has nudged down to below 8.0%, from closer to 10.0% three years ago. But that’s not the most striking piece of economic data to come out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The most striking – and saddening – data is that we now have, by far, the lowest civilian labor force participation rate for thirty years. Workers are leaving the labor force because the jobs aren’t there. It’s a waste of a generation. Meantime, we should use a new unemployment metric that reflects the true US jobless rate rather than a politically sanitized version. A little honestry, transparency and accountability can go a long way.

On the eighth day of Christmas, my country gave to me

Corporate tax scams

GE's CEO advises the Obama administration on economics, go figure!

In 2010, General Electric paid no corporation tax. None. Not even one miserable dollar. In the five years to 2010, GE accumulated $26 billion in US profits and do you want to guess how much of that was passed to the IRS? You’re guessing zero, right? Unfortunately, you’re wrong. The answer’s worse than that: they accumulated a net benefit of $4.1 billion. Oh, and though the firm is America’s biggest corporate lobbyist, the truth is that countless big firms are playing the same game – and the data shows that the more you lobby, the better your shareholders fare. I’m guessing that’s not quite the way the Founding Fathers intended things to work.

On the ninth day of Christmas, my country gave to me

A huge Farcebook rip-off

Morgan Stanley banked profits on this IPO

Just in case anyone needed proof that Wall Street has absolutely no ethics at all, the Facebook IPO popped up to remind us. Extravagant valuations on launch led to an intra-day high of $45.00, before reality set in and the stock plunged to a way more realistic $17.55. The winners: company insiders and Wall Street. The losers: the retail investors who believed the hype. (Oh, and since we’re talking about hype, then Apple at its current $500 a share is way more reasonable than it was at closer to $700. It’s a wonderful firm, but it’s in a commodity business where the competition, finally, is catching up.) On Facebook, meantime Morgan Stanley has just been fined $1.5 million for an operation whose profits were well in excess of that sum. Again: why change a business model if the fines are mere pinpricks?

On the tenth day of Christmas, my country gave to me

The power to hope

Ho HO HOPE

This is America. However bad things get, we can still believe in the possibility of improvement. We can believe that our leaders will find the ability to be responsible, to think about the good of the country before the good of their parties. We can believe that the media and regulators can find their teeth. Can demand transparency and enforce accountability. Above all, we can believe in the power of the American people to demand change. To slash debt, return to honest money, to speak truth in politics. And perhaps, who knows, we can return to the old ways of making money: by making stuff and selling it instead of through ever more opaque financial dealings based upon fictional future value, a mountain of debt, and way over-leveraged derivative products.

A merry Christmas to you all.

Cassandra, in ancient Greek myth, was the daughter of King Priam of Troy. After Helen, she was considered the most beautiful woman on earth. Curly red hair, blue eyes, fair skin. (I know: she sounds more Irish than Turkish, but work with me.) Because of her beauty, the god Apollo fell in love with her and gave her the gift of prophecy. When she did not return his love – always a dangerous game when dating a god – he cursed her, ensuring no one would ever believe her prophecies.

But Cassandra saw it all coming: the Trojan war, the Trojan horse, the fall of the city and the slaughter of its citizens. She explained clearly and repeatedly what was happening. And no one believed her. Even after her early forecasts had proved to be bang on the money, still no one believed her. Even as the Trojan horse, bursting at the joins with Greek soldiers, trundled up to the gates of Troy, no one believed her.

Greece: We can’t see the 10-year depression just yet – but that doesn’t mean it’s not coming

So Cassandra feels like a good term to apply to people like me. (I’ve never been wooed by a goddess and cruel observers might suggest I’m very slightly past my physical peak, but I’m trying to focus on the prophesy side of things here. Work with me, folks.)

I’ve said for ages that the euro will fail, that the countries of the Mediterranean are bankrupt, that Germany doesn’t have the resources to fill the void, and that the Western world is entering not a recession, but a depression: a huge, 10-year, economic slump.

And here we are. If you look outside the city gates right now, I think you’ll find a giant wooden horse with a trapdoor in its belly. Because I’m a Cassandra, you won’t believe me of course, but I’ll give it a try anyway. That’s what I’m fated to do.

So number one, the interest rates on Spanish government debt are now heading up towards 8%. If you want to borrow money from the bank, you can likely do it cheaper than that. You personally may have a better credit rating than the Spanish government right now. In any case, a government can’t pay those punitive rates when its debt is gaping, its deficit out of control, and its economy in recession.

There’s muttering about a €300 billion bailout, which would keep Spain away from the financial markets for three years, but so what? For reasons I’m about to come to, I don’t think such a bailout could possibly happen, but even if it did, so what? Spain’s problem is too much debt piled onto a creaky economy. That €300 billion ‘bailout’ wouldn’t be a gift, it would be a loan. The solution to too much debt is not more debt. (And, for that matter, Mr King, the solution to weak money is not to print an endless supply of the stuff.) Naturally a giant bailout would kick the problem down the road, but bankruptcy is bankruptcy no matter when you meet it.

That’s point one. Point two is that Germany (and creditworthy northern Europe in general) is coming to the end of its borrowing capacity. There’s no reason at all why the German government should fail to meet its obligations, but it can’t be the Atlas that shoulders all the burdens of its southern neighbours too.

The ratings agencies have noticed this. Germany is now on credit watch for possible downgrade. If Germany commits to a monster bailout of Spain (not directly, of course, but via some Euro acronym), that downgrade would happen faster than Helmut Kohl could guzzle a schnitzel. Because Germany knows this, and because its citizens know it, those German purse strings are going to be drawn ever tighter as eurozone discussions progress. And quite right too. Germans have worked hard to restrain wage costs, export goods, innovate new products, and boost productivity. There’s no reason on earth why the fruit of those efforts should be handed out to economies which have steered a very different course.

Germany is now on credit watch for a possible downgrade. No wonder Angela Merkel is showing the strain

Point three: the terrible data, released today, about the British recession. I said we were in recession back in autumn last year. (No one believed me but, hey, I’m used to it.) And now we find that we’ve actually had three successive quarters of recession, with the last quarter the worse of the lot. Even if things turn up – and, pardon me for asking, but do you see any grounds for optimism right now? – we’ve still experienced the worst recession in British economic history. Not a bit worse than the Great Depression but, by now, very significantly worse.

Like I say, I’ve been saying all this for a while. Me and Cassandra both. The Greeks are coming. There’s going to be war. It’ll last for ten years. That wooden horse looks mighty iffy to me.

And no one listens. Maybe it’s nothing to do with being cursed by a God. Maybe it’s just the way with people who tell the truths that people don’t want to hear. But we Cassandras just go on prophesying anyway. There’s a big storm coming and it’s about to strike.

This was published in todays Daily Mail.

Those same finance ministers are also set to approve a year’s delay in the deadline given to Spain for reaching a budget deficit of 3% of GDP. That won’t, of course, be the last bailout for Spain and, please note, a budget deficit of 3% is still pushing debt ever upwards in acountry whose economy is getting smaller not bigger.

Unsurprisingly, government bond markets have once again been wildly unimpressed. Spanish bond yields briefly touched 7% today, before falling back. Given that Spanish debt (according to the misleading official figures) is around 7% of GDP and rising fast, interest rates at this level mean that about 5 cents in every euro are going to pay the interest on that debt.

The costs of euro collapse will be huge, but those costs are coming anyway. And they only get bigger the longer you defer the moment of truth

Put another way, Spaniards have to work about three weeks a year, simply to pay off the interest they owe on the national debt. No wonder their economy is failing under the weight of that burden. No wonder unemployment is so extravagantly high.

It’s time to end this massive Ponzi Scheme. If the problem is too much debt, you don’t solve the problem by extending more debt. If the problem is banks with irresponsibly reckless lending practices, the solution is not to “gift” them more money. If the problem is a wildly uncontrolled money supply, you don’t solve that problem by printing money until the presses are smoking hot.

A Ponzi Scheme is any merry-go-round fraud where you have to keep pulling new idiots into your scheme to keep things going. It’s the economics of the chain-letter. People can sometimes make money, but only if the supply of idiots is big enough. These things always collapse – and collapse disastrously – in the end.

We’re near that point now. Spain can’t receive a Greek-style bailout: all the EU rescue funds combined don’t have the resources to do it. Even if Germany decided to do all it could, the scale of these debts would simply overwhelm Germany’s (already very indebted) economy. In any case, if the fairies came and Spain were rescued, the pressure on Italy would soon become almost overwhelming. And though France hasn’t been hitting the headlines recently, it has higher debt than Spain, a history of deficits and a huge banking sector with vast exposure to Spain, Italy and Greece.

So why not let’s just call it a day? For Spain. For Italy. For the Euro. For this whole misconceived and duplicitous Ponzi Scheme. The costs of euro collapse will be huge, but those costs are coming anyway. And they only get bigger the longer you defer the moment of truth.

David Cameron wants to hold a referendum on Europe sometime after the next election. But he’d better get on with it. Europe, in its current form, doesn’t have that long to live.

I published this in the Daily Mail.

Two bits of news in the last couple days. One, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has decided to extend Operation Twist, a policy whereby the Fed sells short-dated government paper in order to buy the longer-dated sort. It sounds boring but it involves $267 billion, so it’s kind of consequential all the same. Oh, and traders warn that the disappearance of the Fed’s holdings of short-dated government paper could gum up those markets, thereby causing costs greater thany any likely benefit. But still, mere reality doesn’t deter Bernanke, who asserts, ”We are prepared to do what’s necessary. We are prepared to provide support for the economy. Additional asset purchases would be among the things that we would certainly consider if we need to take additional measures to strengthen the economy.”

So: $267 billion of your money is being put at risk on a complex long-dated debt operation of dubious benefit, while the leader of that operation comments that much more money might be needed down the road. That’s news item one.

Money printing is all I know.....

News item two: Moody’s announced a mass downgrade of American and European banks. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley took a hit. So did Bank of America, JP Morgan and Citigroup. So too did a raft of European banks, including some of the biggest. The markets didn’t react much to these downgrades, but only because the credit failings of these banks has long been baked into the price. Credit default swaps on two nationalized British banks, RBS and Lloyds, are already priced at junk levels. Anything Moody’s says now is like a punch line delivered long after the party guests have departed. In reality, the truth is probably worse even than Moody’s is suggesting. Many of these banks will see further downgrades, some of them sharp, before this crisis is done.

Now these things are connected. They’re connected in the simplest of ways. The central banks are committed to a policy of debasing the currency, manipulating interest rates and artificially inflating asset bubbles. Meantime, the Western financial system is in parlous shape. Well, duh! Of course. You don’t fix lousy banks by printing wild sums of money to prop up the markets. You fix lousy banks by writing off bad loans, forcing shareholders and creditors to take the hit. You clean up and move on. It’s so obvious a child could see it.

But not Ben Bernanke. Part of the problem is a kind of academic groupthink. Two of the world’s leading central bankers are Ben Bernanke of the Fed and Mervyn King of the Bank of England. King was a visiting professor at Harvard and then MIT, where he shared an office with the then Assistant Professor Ben Bernanke. They come from the same intellectual hutch, the same narrow world-view.

And please note, that world view is born of academic theory, not practical reality. It’s born of an obsession with the Great Depression in the 1930s … forgetting that everything, but everything, has changed since then. Back then, trade was limited, international finance modest, government finances strong, consumer credit exceptionally low, derivative markets all but non-existent. Not one of those things is true today. Government finances are shot to hell. Derivatives markets have bcome too big to regulate and too vast to fail. Consumer credit is terrifying. And the whole world is connected in one lethal stew of poor credit, mistrust and non-disclosure of losses.

So let’s keep this simple. I argue the Great Depression has almost nothing to teach us. The academic central bankers who have guided us into this crisis, and have been printing money throughout it, are only making the problem worse. The mess our banks are in is in large part due to the failures of these same central bankers, the like-minded Nobel laureates and the same old recycled economic advisors.

The recipe for recovery is simple too. You need to rip the bandages off. It’ll hurt, but the patient will get better. Banks (and central bankers) need to face up to their losses. If shareholders and bondholders have lost money, then tough. Why on earth should taxpayers pick up this tab? Because the banks have hired expensive lobbyists to purchase politicians’ favor? I don’t think so.

We are currently in the midst of a major depression. Unemployment (measured by U-6) is at almost 15%. The economic projections in the White House’s budget are clearly powered by the kind of substances that President Clinton once smoked (but did not inhale). The government deficit is in meltdown, yet hasn’t remotely engineered the kind of growth-led recovery we had been led to expect.

I’m not surprised. Here on Planet Ponzi we hold these truths to be self-evident. That the Fed is becoming impotent; it’s running out of bullets. The Fed is out of touch with reality, printing trillions of dollars without the consent of the people of America. That the Fed is taking on a giagantic risk position in long-dated securities, which will have catastrophic consequences if — or rather when — interest rates rise. That existing policies have clearly, plainly and unequivocally failed — yet are still being implemented seemingly without end.

It’s time for a change, and the change can’t come too soon.

I published this in todays Huffington Post

The United Kingdom has too much debt. Reports normally focus on government debt: currently around 80% of national income, unless you take into account (as you should) the debts of the bailed-out banks and their toxic portfolios, which would pretty much double that figure.

But what about consumer debt? Mortgage debt? Business debt? The huge slabs of debt incurred by our banking system? The truth is, if you want to know how much the United Kingdom owes, you need to add up everything.

And the answer is terrifying. We owe about 500% of GDP. So for every pound you earn in a year, someone, somewhere owes £5.  Add it all up and you get to a total just shy of £8 trillion.

Burden: Including bank bailouts, the UK’s national debt is already around 160% of GDP

You don’t have to be a rocket-scientist to figure out that this is a problem. Indeed, you’d have to be living under a stone not to have noticed that our economy has plunged into a depression because of this weight of debt. The banks started it, but we’re all in it together. And it’s not just Britain, it’s Europe too. And the US economy is way more fragile than is sometimes reported.

The dictionary definition of a depression is ‘a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a recession, which is seen by some economists as part of the modern business cycle.’ That’s us. That’s where we are. The Great Depression of the 1930s did not destroy output to the same degree and recovery was faster. This is the worst depression in British economic history.

And what is the solution to this crisis, as cooked up between George Osborne and Mervyn King, the Bank of England chief? 

I love Wimbledon, it's Smashing!

George Osborne and Mervyn King have announced their intention to make around £100bn of cheap loans available to banks, allowing them to lend to businesses

Answer: more debt! Clearly, these wise souls believe that the whole problem with the British economy is that we don’t have enough debt. So let’s have more. In fact – and how’s this for a plan? – let’s make soft loans at cheap rates to the same klutzy British banks that created this mess in the first place and hope that somehow that sparks off a spiral of investment and innovation. You might as well plan for world peace by selling arms to the Middle East. (Or, come to think of it, making Tony Blair a peace envoy.) It’s the same crazed logic.

Fortunately, though, businesses aren’t stupid. The main barrier to investment isn’t the availability of credit; it’s the dire economy. Businesses are, quite rightly, looking at the devastation and lack of governance around them and thinking this might not be the best possible time to launch new ventures or expand old ones.

And the solution?  Well, there isn’t one short of de-leveraging. The only way to a problem of excessive debt is to have less debt. You can’t achieve that by waving a magic wand, you achieve it by working hard, paying down your loans, and remembering that, next time, you better keep your credit card in your pocket when you pass those nice, inviting stores.

But meantime, the plan does reveal something important about the decision-makers in charge of the economy. George Osborne I have some time for: at least he realises he needs to get the government to borrow less; at least he knows that the banks have to be tamed. But Mervyn King: what is he for? We are currently paying him to print money and shovel cheap loans at dodgy banks fueling a property bubble of epic proportion. 

Athens burns: Does this look like the creation of aggregate demand, Mr King?

Creating asset bubbles and money printing are terrible policies that King has become addicted to. He’s past his sell by date and has to go.
 

I published this in the Daily Mail

I don’t know. But I do know that behind the bland official announcements and yawn-inducing data about pension-deficits there is a giant scam going on and you are the one being ripped off. But first, let’s get to grips with the facts. According to the neutral voice of the BBC news website: ‘Royal Mail pension fund assets and liabilities are set to be transferred to the government next month, subject to EU approval, the BBC understands. The move means that Royal Mail pensioners will enjoy a state guarantee of their retirement benefits. It is a key part of the impending privatisation of the Royal Mail. The transfer – which was backed by the Communication Worker’s Union – will provide a windfall gain to the government’s budget of about £28bn.’

So that’s all good, right? It’s win-win-win. The Communications Worker’s Union gets what they want (government-guaranteed pensions). Royal Mail management gets what it wants (the path cleared for privatisation). And the government gets a windfall gain of £28 billion which, with government finances the way they are, is not to be sneezed at.

Only, and here’s the thing, you can’t create winners by accounting changes. And if it looks like everyone’s a winner, then you can pretty much bet that there will be a loser – and you, my friend, have been cast in that role. Congratulations.

Here’s the scam. By nationalising the Royal Mail pension fund, the government gets to snaffle its £28 billion of real, tangible financial assets. That’s all real money, which can be used to offset our borrowing needs, hence the reason why the government debt falls by that amount.

But the government is also nationalising the future obligations of the Royal Mail pension fund. And – how unsurprising is this? – those liabilities are almost £10 billion greater than those assets. So in fact the taxpayer has just lost out to the tune of £10 billion. The only reason why the government debt looks better not worse is that our current – insane – accounting standards don’t report pension obligations as part of total financial obligations.

If you want to know how much that little swindle will have cost your household, the answer is approximately £450. And please don’t think that that £450 is one of those mythical charges which will never actually be imposed. On the contrary: those Royal Mail pensioners will receive their pensions and you personally will be on the hook to make sure they do. Needless to say, if you are covered by a private sector scheme, no taxpayers will be there to rescue you should something go wrong.

Fortunately, of course, you have your elected representatives to defend your interests and stand up to this fiscally reckless behaviour. One lion-hearted MP, for example, said: ‘I fear the government is going to steal £22bn of pension assets, dump the liability as a mortgage on future generations and dress it up as the salvation of the Royal Mail. Their plan to steal the pension assets to help reduce their borrowing figures while taking out a massive mortgage to cover Post Office pension liabilities for 50 years is nothing more than a massive accounting scam … This dangerous plan must be resisted.’

Strong stuff, huh? The trouble is that the MP in question was speaking in 2008. His name was Alan Duncan, then the Conservative’s shadow business secretary. And Duncan is now in the cabinet … which is expected to approve these plans.

And, in any case, a scam of a mere £10 billion was never likely to satisfy our politicians. Why fool around with mere tens of billions when you could play fast and loose with thousands of billions?

So, for example, when the government released its most recent debt figures, it said: ‘net debt excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions was £988.7 billion, equivalent to 63.0% of GDP.’ Since things only get really hairy when debt is above 100% of GDP, you’d think that everything was under control. Everything’s fine.

Well, yes, exactly. That’s what you’d think the implication of that statement is … except you probably have a niggling worry about that phrase to do with ‘the temporary effects of financial interventions’. And if you have such a niggling worry, you’re quite right to be alarmed. Because the ‘temporary effects’ in question refer to the government’s ongoing bailout of RBS and others. We’ve basically taken on the debts of the bailed out banks and will need to discharge those debts. Sure, we’ve also taken on some assets at the same time … but if the assets had been all that wonderful, we wouldn’t have had to bail the banks out in the first place. We took on iron-hard debts and putty-soft assets. That’s not a great combination.

The amounts involved are enormous. Including the effects of the bank bailouts – as we have to, if these accounts are to make any sense at all – public sector net debt at the end of January 2012 was £2311.6 billion or a jaw-dropping 147.3%  of GDP. That’s within touching distance of Greek levels of debt.

The last government got us into this hole and we can’t reasonably blame this one for not having fixed the problem yet. But the Royal Mail pension scam sends a deeply concerning messsage about the direction of travel. Personally, I think that the water in the taps of Whitehall has done its stuff. Stockholm Syndrome has taken effect. The contagion is spreading.

The lions have turned into rats.

You know that scene in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington? The one where the good guy, Jimmy Stewart, stands up in the Senate protesting the graft and corruption he sees all around him. He’s not as smart as the other Senators. He was only elected by accident and knows that he’s not properly qualified to sit in the legislature of the United States.

But still. He’s Jimmy Stewart. He knows right from wrong and he knows that graft and corruption is wrong, no matter how slick the justification or how nice the suit. He makes a long, wonderful, stirring speech – if you haven’t seen the movie, you ought to – and he keeps coming back to the fundamental point of common sense. At one point, he says, ‘Either I’m dead right, or I’m crazy!’

And he’s not crazy.

This blog is the same. I am, as it happens, a hedge fund manager who’s spent thirty years working in the financial markets. As a result, I know a lot about the world’s financial system and how it works. But you don’t have to be a technical wizard to understand these things. The government of the United States owes 100% of American GDP. That’s insane.

The Federal Reserve is charged with preserving the value of the currency, but it has printed trillions of dollars in new money. When inflation is galloping away. And the Fed doesn’t even know where those trillions have disappeared to. That’s insane.

The Congressional Budget Office tells us that Medicare spending is going to bankrupt the budget. (You can see their chart of federal debt here.) We’re not talking about a few bucks of overspend, but a cost tsunami which will utterly destroy every fiscal rule ever invented. That’s insane.

The Tea Party crowd want us to cut taxes, even though we don’t have enough revenues to cover our expenses as it is. And a tax cut when the nation is in deficit is really a tax increase, because you have to pay the money back again, and with interest. More insanity.

And Wall Street bosses pay themselves extraordinary bonuses even though their stock prices are tanking. That’s not capitalism as I ever understood it. You can call it insanity if you wish, or criminality if you prefer. Either way, I don’t like it.

But these things aren’t confined to the United States. In Britain, we see the same thing: investment banking bosses trashing their company’s share price, bankrupting the government, causing a massive recession – and walking away as multi-millionaires.

In Italy, we see Silvio Berlusconi, the political world’s greatest idiot, presenting an ‘austerity budget’ to Parliament which would make him personally €750 million richer.

The Greek government has been obviously bankrupt for years, but it’s taken till now for Europe to recognize the fact.

The European Union announces a ‘rescue plan’ that will impose vast costs on the ‘strong’ governments, but which has obviously failed within a couple of days of the announcement.

It’s all insane. And not just insane – it’s wrong. Ethically, financially, and socially wrong. Much of it is also, in my opinion, illegal and should be punished by long terms in jail.

This blog is about these issues. It’ll shout out when politicians and bankers do things wrong. It’ll cheer on those rare occasions when politicians get things right. We’ll also talk about the dollar in your purse, the pound in your pocket. The value of your savings is under threat and, as a professional investment manager, I’ll share with you my philosophy on how to preserve your savings from destruction. These are dangerous times and they’re only just starting.

]]> http://planetponzi.com/blog/what-is-a-ponzi-scheme/feed 7 http://planetponzi.com/blog/welcome-to-planet-ponzi http://planetponzi.com/blog/welcome-to-planet-ponzi#comments Wed, 09 Nov 2011 15:29:55 +0000 Mitch Feierstein http://planetponzi.playground.frumatic.com/?p=11 You know that scene in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington? The one where the good guy, Jimmy Stewart, stands up in the Senate protesting the graft and corruption he sees all around him. He’s not as smart as the other Senators. He was only elected by accident and knows that he’s not properly qualified to sit in the legislature of the United States.

But still. He’s Jimmy Stewart. He knows right from wrong and he knows that graft and corruption is wrong, no matter how slick the justification or how nice the suit. He makes a long, wonderful, stirring speech – if you haven’t seen the movie, you ought to – and he keeps coming back the fundamental point of common sense. At one point, he says, ‘Either I’m dead right, or I’m crazy!’

And he’s not crazy.

This blog is the same. I am, as it happens, a hedge fund manager who’s spent thirty years working in the financial markets. As a result, I know a lot about the world’s financial system and how it works. But you don’t have to be a technical wizard to understand these things. The government of the United States owes 100% of American GDP. That’s insane.

The Federal Reserve is charged with preserving the value of the currency, but it has printed trillions of dollars in new money. When inflation is galloping away. And the Fed doesn’t even know where those trillions have disappeared to. That’s insane.

The Congressional Budget Office tells us that Medicare spending is going to bankrupt the budget. (You can see their chart of federal debt here.) We’re not talking about a few bucks of overspend, but a cost tsunami which will utterly destroy every fiscal rule ever invented. That’s insane.

The Tea Party crowd want us to cut taxes, even though we don’t have enough revenues to cover our expenses as it is. And a tax cut when the nation is in deficit is really a tax increase, because you have to pay the money back again, and with interest. More insanity.

And Wall Street bosses pay themselves extraordinary bonuses even though their stock prices are tanking. That’s not capitalism as I ever understood it. You can call it insanity if you wish, or criminality if you prefer. Either way, I don’t like it.

But these things aren’t confined to the United States. In Britain, we see the same thing: investment banking bosses trashing their company’s share price, bankrupting the government, causing a massive recession – and walking away as multi-millionaires.

In Italy, we see Silvio Berlusconi, the political world’s greatest idiot, presenting an ‘austerity budget’ to Parliament which would make him personally €750 million richer.

The Greek government has been obviously bankrupt for years, but it’s taken till now for Europe to recognize the fact.

The European Union announces a ‘rescue plan’ that will impose vast costs on the ‘strong’ governments, but which has obviously failed within a couple of days of the announcement.

It’s all insane. And not just insane – it’s wrong. Ethically, financially, and socially wrong. Much of it is also, in my opinion, illegal and should be punished by long terms in jail.

This blog is about these issues. It’ll shout out when politicians and bankers do things wrong. It’ll cheer on those rare occasions when politicians get things right. We’ll also talk about the dollar in your purse, the pound in your pocket. The value of your savings is under threat and, as a professional investment manager, I’ll share with you my philosophy on how to preserve your savings from destruction. These are dangerous times and they’re only just starting.